Forest v Villa Tips: Can Steve Cooper get a win to reward Forest's faith?

Robin Bairner

10 October 2022

Monday night’s serving of Premier League football sees Nottingham Forest host Aston Villa in a fixture that already promises to have significant ramifications in the relegation battle. Check out Robin Bairner's Forest v Villa tips and predictions below.

Forest, after an ambitious summer in the transfer market, find themselves rooted to the foot of the table after earning just four points from their eight matches so far.

Villa, meanwhile, are on a tightrope. Only four points better off than their hosts, they could be drawn into the thick of the dogfight with a defeat, while a victory would carry them above Liverpool and into the upper half of the table.

Forest keep the faith

Nottingham Forest’s bold strategy this summer revolved around effectively building a whole new squad for the Premier League. Far from accepting that the tactic has failed, though, they have moved to give manager Steve Cooper a new long-term contract in a huge public show of confidence.

After integrating a whole new squad of players, Forest might have expected their results to pick up by now. Instead, the opposite has occurred. They are on a five-game losing streak, and though it started with losses against high-fliers Tottenham and Manchester City, they have since been beaten at home to fellow newly promoted sides Bournemouth and Fulham, while they suffered a 3-0 loss against out-of-form Leicester last Monday.

If they are to see a turnaround, their defence must improve. In their first eight matches of the season, they have faced 56 shots on target – the third-highest tally allowed by any team at this stage of a Premier League season.

On the road to recovery?

Aston Villa are seeking to take advantage of Forest’s struggles to continue their own turnaround. Inspired by an unlikely 1-1 home draw against Manchester City, they have pieced together a three-match undefeated run, which has seen them keep back-to-back clean sheets against Southampton and Leeds.

Nevertheless, they have just six goals to their name this season, which is incidentally the same number as their hosts. Villa, though, have conceded fewer than half the goals of Forest, and they will be hopeful that their defensive strength comes to the fore here.

Certainly, Steven Gerrard will find his job on the line should Villa lose this match, adding an additional element of pressure to this game.

Get ready for battle

This is likely to be a tense fixture, considering how much is on the line for each of these sides. With neither in form offensively, backing under 2.5 goals appears a logical move at 1.91.

Another avenue worth examining is the bookings market. Between them, these sides have picked up 44 yellows in eight games, averaging well over five a match. Monday’s referee Rob Jones has overseen them on three occasions – Forest twice and Villa once – and has dished out at least five cards in each of these games.

With this liable to be a tense, competitive and dogged affair, odds around the 1.69 mark of this happening again are pretty healthy.