FA Cup 4th round: Hammers to avoid upset

Kidderminster Harriers v West Ham United

Saturday 5 February, 12.30pm, BBC One

Kidderminster out to cause upset of season

As a National League North side, Kidderminster Harriers began their FA Cup journey way back in the second qualifying round. Victories over Sporting Khalsa, Ware and Bedfont Sports landed them a spot in the competition proper, where they have already dispatched Grimsby Town, Halifax Town and Reading. 

A home draw against Premier League opposition is exactly what Kidderminster were hoping for in the fourth round. They are the lowest-ranked team left in the tournament and are seeking to avenge a 1-0 defeat by West Ham in 1994 that prevented them reaching the quarter-finals.

A Kidderminster win on Saturday would be the shock of the season. Only nine non-league teams in the FA Cup's history have reached the fifth round. West Ham are not any old top-flight team either: they are currently fifth in the table, just one point adrift of the Champions League places.

West Ham likely to rotate ahead of Watford clash

Kidderminster are massive underdogs in this tie - our traders price their chances of a win at 11.5 - but their chances of a historic upset are boosted slightly by the fixture list.

West Ham have a Premier League game on the horizon, with Watford set to visit the London Stadium on Tuesday night. The top-four race is David Moyes' priority this season and he will no doubt shuffle his pack for the trip to the 6,440-capacity Aggborough Stadium.

Even so, West Ham's second string should have far too much quality for Kidderminster. The likes of Andriy Yarmolenko, Mark Noble and Nikola Vlasic are either full internationals or experienced Premier League players.

It's therefore hard to look past a comfortable away win. West Ham are priced at just 1.29 to win in 90 minutes and 1.11 to qualify. There are much better options to be had in terms of value - consider West Ham with a -2.5 handicap (2.76) and a Hammers win to nil (1.97).

David Moyes' West Ham are challenging for Champions League places

Consider Noble in the goalscorer market

It is sensible to be slightly wary of the goalscorer markets in games like this. Although Moyes is likely to ring the changes, the extent of his rotations is hard to predict.

One man who will almost certainly start is Noble. The club captain has already confirmed he will leave West Ham at the end of the season, bringing to an end an 18-year career at his boyhood club. 

Noble has featured for just 93 minutes in the Premier League this term, and although he did not appear in the third-round defeat of Leeds United, that was probably because of the quality of the opposition.

With West Ham likely to spend most of the match in and around Kidderminster's penalty area, the away team could well win a penalty. Noble is reliable from the spot, making odds of 3.4 on the midfielder to score anytime look attractive.

Recommended bets

West Ham -2.5 handicap at 2.76

Mark Noble to score anytime at 3.4

West Ham to win to nil at 1.97