England v France Predictions: Robin Bairner believes the Three Lions can cause a minor upset

Robin Bairner

9 December 2022

The best World Cup quarter-final - on paper, at least - has been saved until last as Gareth Southgate’s England will face defending champions France on Saturday evening.

England progressed to the last eight with ease. Although there was a slight hiccup against the USA in the group stage by way of a scoreless draw, the Three Lions have continually impressed, albeit against relatively modest opponents.

Meanwhile, France are yet to experience a big test. Denmark were seen off in the pools and, although they posted a shock defeat against Tunisia, manager Didier Deschamps decided to rest nine of his starters for that match-up as qualification was assured.

England can make history

Gareth Southgate may not be a universally popular figure, but the England manager has the chance of creating history by becoming the first Three Lions boss to reach two World Cup semi-finals. After a fourth-placed finish in 2018 and a runners-up spot at Euro 2020, there is little doubt that he and his side are impressively tournament-hardened.

Indeed, there is a good omen for England in that they have won both previous World Cup meetings against France – including a 2-0 success back in 1966, when they famously went all the way to win the Jules Rimet Trophy. Their other victory came in 1982.

Despite the success England have had over the course of the last four years, there are lingering doubts over Southgate’s tactical acumen. Will he adopt his typically cautious approach against the world champions, who are depleted defensively, or will he go for it? The outcome of this match could help define his legacy.

Lion tamers?

France are the favourites to progress to the final in the lower half of the draw, with an outright price of 5.8 to go all the way and become the first team since Brazil in 1958 to defend their world crown. Given numerous key players, including Karim Benzema, Paul Pogba, N’Golo Kante and Christopher Nkunku are missing, this tells you the depth of their talent pool.

Paul Pogba (right): isn't at the World Cup for France

Meanwhile, fitness fears of five-goal top scorer Kylian Mbappe were quickly brushed aside after he missed training earlier this week. England may be sharing their goals out impressively, but there is little doubt that the PSG striker is central to Les Bleus’ hopes, hence the focus that will be placed on stopping him.

France’s recent record against England has been strong. They have lost only one of their last eight against the Three Lions, which was a 2015 friendly in the wake of the terrorist attacks on Paris and the Stade de France, where Les Bleus were playing at the time. They have also won eight of their last 10 knockout matches against UEFA opponents in the World Cup.

On the board

England’s price to win in 90 minutes (3.15) is very tempting indeed. This is a side that has looked strong throughout the competition, has impressive depth and is high in confidence. On the flip side, France are depleted and do not look great value at 2.56, despite the presence of Mbappe.

If you like your shorter prices, England to score at least one goal at 1.45 should be a banker. France haven’t kept a clean sheet in this tournament and, with a back line that is certainly not settled, this looks like a strong bet.