EFL League One Outright Betting Tips: Birmingham to live up to favourites billing

After picking my top promotion and top seven picks in League Two, I am back to preview the same bets for League One. A lot of money has come in for Birmingham City after a summer of big spending – presenting value further down the league. 

To win the title

Despite being a bit short for my liking, it is hard to ignore Birmingham to win the league. A massive club who have endured a tumultuous few years, The Blues are entering a new era under the ownership of American Tom Wagner who has ambitious plans of firing the sleeping giants back to the Premier League. 

Their spending has exceeded £11 million so far and looks set to continue as they set a target to smash Wolves record points tally (103). Birmingham have been smart with their signings, and they have built a squad capable of competing towards the top of the Championship – let alone League One. 

Ball-playing centre back Christoph Klarer joins after playing in 30 Bundesliga games last season, as well as Hearts fan-favourite Alex Cochrane to compete for the left-back position with Lee Buchanan. 

Marc Leonard arrives from Brighton after a couple of stand-out loan ties with Northampton. He will form an elite midfield partnership with former La Masia talent Paik Seung-Ho and Welsh international Jordan James. 

6ft 4in attacking midfielder Willum Willumsson signs from Eredivisie side Go Ahead Eagles, coming with rave reviews. Winger Emil Hansson also joins from the Eredivisie after 11 goal contributions last year.

Perhaps the most telling sign of their ambition is the signing of Alfie May from Charlton. The 30-year-old scored 27 goals for Charlton last season as he went on to claim the Golden Boot – his third consecutive season breaking the 20-goal barrier. 

The abundance of impressive signings adds to a core that already looks too strong for League One. It will be very hard to knock Birmingham off the top spot this season.

Prediction: Birmingham to win the league @ 2.80

Promotion

With Birmingham being such short favourites for the title, it should represent the opportunity to scout out value on the teams below them. Just like Birmingham, I believe Rotherham look too strong for the league and should bounce straight back up to the Championship. 

The Millers are forever labelled as a ‘yo-yo’ club after being relegated or promoted in all bar one of their last eight seasons. With Steve Evans back at the helm, optimism is rife that Rotherham could bounce straight back up again – a habit they have become accustomed to in recent years. 

As is to be expected from Steve Evans, it has been a summer of huge turnover with 13 players departing the club and 13 joining so far. Evans has opted for experience, with 10 of his 11 permanent signings 25 or older. 

The controversial manager excels in getting the best out of teams – as shown with his overachievement with Stevenage. With a summer to mould Rotherham into the team he wants, expect them to be right up there. 

Defensive duo Sean Raggett and Joe Rafferty join after playing pivotal roles in Portsmouth’s title triumph last year, while Reece James joins from fellow Yorkshire club Sheffield Wednesday. Zak Jules also signs from Exeter to round off a very formidable defence. 

Liam Kelly (34) brings a wealth of experience. The midfield lynchpin signed from Coventry. Shaun McWilliams and Joe Powell join from Northampton and Burton respectively, with Rotherham looking to sign the best players from various League One teams. 

Joining the already potent strike force of Jordan Hugill and Sam Nombe is Jonson Clark-Harris who signs from Peterborough after numerous clinical seasons at League One level. 

This Rotherham team is littered with talent and players with promotion pedigree. Steve Evans has coached nine promotions and is chasing an illustrious tenth. 

Prediction: Rotherham to get promoted @ 4.10

Top 6

League One looks extremely tight to call this year with many teams vying for promotion in an extremely competitive division. I’ve picked out two stand-out prices to finish in the Top Six. 

Bolton pushed Derby for the second automatic promotion place but ultimately fell short before losing in the playoffs for the second consecutive season, succumbing them to a fourth straight season in League One. 

Ian Evatt has been at the club five years now and has built a squad that matches his philosophy and is capable of challenging for promotion. 

In Ricardo Santos, The Trotters boast one of the best centre-backs in the division, with Eoin Toal an extremely capable partner on one side, while new signing Chris Forino (Wycombe) makes up an aerially dominant back three. 

While the loss of creative maestro Paris Maghoma back to parent club Brentford is a blow, Klaidi Lolos – who registered 18 goal contributions for Crawley last campaign, is a more than able deputy. 

Up front, Dion Charles and Aaron Collins are arguably the best front two in the league. Charles has scored over 40 goals in all competitions over the last two seasons while Collins has 71 in the last three. 

Stockport were sublime as they won the League Two title, returning to League One for the first time in 16 years after dropping out of the EFL for 11 years. 

The summer signings have been impressive yet again. Correy Addai joins from Crawley after being the stand-out goalkeeper in League Two last year. Jay Mingi and Jayden Fevrier both join from Colchester – two young players on an upward trajectory. 

Lewis Fiorni and Lewis Bate join to augment the midfield from Manchester City and Leeds respectively, with Bate impressing on loan at MK Dons last season. Callum Connolly and Jack Diamond also represent astute signings. 

David Challinor has also been brutal in his squad planning, releasing a host of players that have been so pivotal in their rise through the ranks – a sign of a manager with a winning mentality.

The handful of new signings add to an already strong core of players. Ethan Pye and Fraser Horsfall were the best centre-back pairing in League Two and look set to continue that partnership this year. When fit, Will Collar, Nick Powell and Callum Camps are an extremely talented midfield. Upfront, Isaac Olaofe and Paddy Madden scored 47 league goals between them last season and will look to continue this flourishing partnership in League One. 

Stockport have been on an upward trajectory for a number of years now and have all the ingredients to go for back-to-back promotions to the Championship 

Prediction: Bolton to finish in the top 6 @ 1.86
Prediction: Stockport to finish in the top 6 @ 3.20

Recommended Bets

Back Birmingham to win the title @ 2.80
Back Rotherham to get promoted @ 4.10
Back Bolton to finish in the top 6 @ 1.86
Back Stockport to finish in the top 6 @ 3.20