Champions League Predictions: Will Chelsea’s European respite come in Dortmund?

Joe Crann

15 February 2023

It’s been over three months since Chelsea’s last UEFA Champions League match, yet they have only managed a grand total of two victories in the interim in all competitions.

Manager Graham Potter is under growing pressure, but a result in Germany against Borussia Dortmund would help ease some stress for a short while and a break from the usual Premier League grind is understandably appreciated.

Wednesday’s other tie sees Club Brugge host Benfica in a Belgian/Portuguese affair with a twist as it just so happens to be Scott Parker’s European debut as a manager. He’s the first Englishman to manage a foreign team in this competition since Bobby Robson, who led PSV back in 1998.

With two interesting fixtures ahead, football expert Joe Crann previews the matches and pinpoints his favourite bets.

Borussia Dortmund v Chelsea

Kick-off: 8pm Wednesday

It may come as a surprise, but this will be the first meeting between these two former Champions League winners. If you are looking for previous head-to-head results, well, there aren’t any.

That forces us to focus on the formbook. While the Blues’ can’t seem to buy a win, the hosts’ recent results couldn’t have been much better. Dortmund are favourites (2.54) for this one, and it’s not hard to see why given they have suffered just three home defeats in Europe since 2018.

Graham Potter: will hope his side can secure a first-leg lead tonight

Potter’s side hasn’t won a single away game this calendar year, but they beat AC Milan and Red Bull Salzburg earlier in this season’s competition and have also only failed to score in four of their last 30 UCL matches. With that - and Dortmund’s somewhat leaky defence - in mind, both teams to score (1.77) is worth a look.

Edin Terzić has never beaten an English team in his managerial career and you have to go back to 2016 to find Dortmund’s last win over English opposition, but they probably won’t have a better chance to fix that than this week.

Prediction: Dortmund to win and Both teams to score @ 5.3

Club Brugge v Benfica

Kick-off: 8pm Wednesday

Things haven’t quite gone to plan for Parker since he took over in Belgium. Club Brugge have won just one of his seven games in charge, though it is worth noting that they have only lost once.

Benfica sit at the other end of the confidence spectrum. They’re flying at the top of Portugal’s Primeira Liga having lost just one 90-minute game all season and winning eight of their 10 UCL games in 2022/23.

Home advantage may play a part, but the Belgians are priced at 4.6 for a reason and a Benfica win (1.89) can be made more tempting by looking into the ‘goals scored’ section. A Portuguese win and Over 1.5 total goals is 2.18.

Gonçalo Ramos (2.34 anytime goalscorer) and João Mário (2.38) have been on fire this season, so there’s a fair chance that at least one of them will net if the visitors leave with a victory.

Prediction: Benfica to win and Over 1.5 goals @ 2.18