Champions League: history shows Carlo Ancelotti's Madrid can stifle Pep's City

Mouthwatering match at the Etihad

Manchester City host Real Madrid in a mouthwatering first leg of the opening Champions League semi-final at the Etihad Stadium on Tuesday. 

It marks a renewal of hostilities between former Barcelona coach Pep Guardiola and one of his greatest rivals, Carlo Ancelotti, and promises to be an electric affair. 

City are priced at 1.5 to win this match, with a draw on offer at 5. Real Madrid are 7.2 outsiders. 

City seek Etihad high five

While Real Madrid cruise towards the Spanish title, Manchester City are embroiled in a titanic battle for the Premier League that continued at the weekend with a comfortable 5-1 win over Watford. Prior to that, they had cruised against Brighton earlier in the week. 

Madrid, of course, represent a significant step up. Few know the Spanish club better than Guardiola, whose long history of facing the Bernabeu side is largely one that falls in his favour, with 11 wins from his previous 19 meetings with them as a manager.

City travelled to the Spanish capital in the previous round of the competition, edging Atletico Madrid 1-0 on aggregate on a tie that was most notable for the disjointed and rather farcical scenes at the end of the second leg. 

They have won four of their five home matches in the competition thus far, with the exception coming against Sporting CP in the last 16. Having won the first leg 5-0 in that tie, though, City did not need to exert themselves on that occasion. 

Man City beat Atletico Madrid to reach the semi-finals, but only scored once in 180 minutes against the Spanish side

Real well rested 

While Manchester City were forced into action as recently as Saturday, Real Madrid were afforded a weekend off due to the Spanish Cup final. Their last match came on April 20, when they beat Osasuna 3-1 away from home, despite Karim Benzema missing two penalties.

Benzema, though, was on the mark in the quarter-finals as Real Madrid eliminated Premier League opposition in form of Chelsea, 5-4 on aggregate after a brilliant tie.

Prior to that, Madrid had shown remarkable fortitude to come back from a seemingly hopeless position to overcome PSG, while a 3-1 defeat in the French capital is the only match they have failed to win on their travels away from home in the Champions League this season. 

Ancelotti’s acumen to be key 

All six previous meetings between these sides have either been defined by a single goal or have been drawn, and thanks to Carlo Ancelotti’s tactical acumen, this is likely to be a similarly close affair. City, certainly, should come out on top, but they have had a habit of slipping up at unexpected moments throughout their Champions League history. That is an accusation that cannot be levelled at their opponents.

With City’s last three matches in this competition yielding just a single goal in total, combined with the shrewd nature of Ancelotti, this is another fixture in which goals are likely to be at a premium. 

Recommended bets

Real Madrid Asian Handicap + 1.5 @ 1.61

Under 3.5 goals @ 1.54