Argentina v Croatia Predictions: Magical Messi may make his mark

Robin Bairner

12 December 2022

Just four teams remain in this year’s World Cup, and Argentina’s semi-final clash with Croatia at the Lusail Stadium on Tuesday is sure to be filled with numerous magical moments.

The winner will meet either France or Morocco in Sunday's final, and both nations will be eager to get another crack at winning the Jules Rimet trophy after they finished runners-up in the last two editions of the competition.

Croatia fell short in the 2018 final against Les Bleus and could set up a repeat of that encounter with victory. Argentina, meanwhile, were beaten by Germany in extra-time in 2014 and are hungry for a victory that would surely seal Lionel Messi’s ‘G.O.A.T.’ tag.

Messi’s magic

After losing to Saudi Arabia in their first group stage match at this tournament, Argentina have come through a succession of must-win games. Mexico, Poland and Australia were dismissed, before a chaotic quarter-final success over the Netherlands, in which the South Americans held their nerve to win on penalties after squandering a 2-0 lead.

Fullbacks Gonzalo Montiel and Marcos Acuna are now suspended in the wake of that remarkable encounter, which saw a record 18 yellow cards shown. This will force at least one change in Lionel Scaloni’s starting squad.

All eyes, of course, will be on Messi, whose genius has carried his side into the final four. With the PSG star close to the peak of his powers - he has scored four goals and created two more in just five games - Argentina stand their best chance of World Cup success since Diego Maradona inspired them to glory in 1986.

Penalty kings

Croatia continue to defy the odds as they have surprisingly reached the final four of the World Cup for the second successive tournament. They boast a competition-hardened team, which was evident as they shocked Brazil on penalties in the quarter-finals after scoring a late equaliser in extra-time.

Luca Modric: has led Croatia to a second successive World Cup semi-final

Just how much that encounter might have taken out of a squad that leans heavily on its veteran figures remains to be seen, though. It was their second shootout of the competition already, having gone all the way against Japan four days earlier.

However, Croatia have positive memories against Argentina to draw upon. Back in 2018, they claimed a 3-0 group stage victory over the Albiceleste, although only the ageless Luka Modric survives in this squad.

Low-scoring battle

Expect a low-scoring game. Four of Croatia's five matches have produced under 2.5 goals, which includes two scoreless encounters in the group stages and another through 90 minutes against Brazil. Argentina are not a prolific side, either, despite possessing one of the best attackers to ever play the game. They have not scored more than two goals in any game at this tournament and head coach Scaloni is something of a pragmatist.

Under 2.5 goals at 1.61 is not overly attractive. But, when you combine that selection with an Argentina win, the odds rise to 3.55. Given the exertion that Croatia have had in the tournament to this point, it will take an almighty effort to avoid defeat.

It will take a moment of genius - or perhaps a set piece - to unlock this Croatia defence. Lionel Messi has scored first in three of Argentina’s five World Cup 2022 matches and his price (5) to make it four is mouth-watering.