Can Pep still be considered a great if he doesn't win the UCL with City?

More than a decade in waiting

Ten years ago this week, Pep Guardiola’s Barcelona thrashed Bayer Leverkusen 7-1 in the second leg of their Champions League last-16 tie.

It was Lionel Messi’s night, the Argentine scoring five times in what remains one of his greatest ever performances. It was also another demonstration of Barcelona’s brilliance under Guardiola. Seeking their third Champions League in four years, the Blaugrana were at that point the favourites to lift the trophy in May 2012.

In the end, of course, it was Chelsea who were victorious that year. More than a decade on, Guardiola is still waiting for another Champions League winner’s medal. That would have been hard to envisage back then, even if it had been known that 2011/12 would be his final season at the Camp Nou.

Three years at Bayern Munich and five full campaigns at Manchester City have not yet yielded another European trophy for Guardiola. Given the City boss is out of contract in 2023, he is running out of time to bring the Champions League to the Etihad Stadium. The question, then, is whether he can still be considered a managerial great if he fails to win the biggest tournament in club football in Manchester?

Appreciate a genius at work

My answer is an emphatic yes. Even if Guardiola were to retire tomorrow, he would go down as one of the best coaches of all time. He has already achieved extraordinary things in the game, scooping silverware galore in Spain, Germany and England. Anyone who has watched his teams at Barcelona, Bayern Munich or Manchester City must surely appreciate his genius.

That is not to say another Champions League would not boost his standing. It is also true that his tenure at the Etihad would feel somehow incomplete without a European gong. Given how brilliant they have been for a number of years, City would look back with regret if they did not have at least one Champions League to show for their consistent excellence under their current manager.

Yet those who would label Guardiola’s entire tenure a failure if City do not win the Champions League this season or next are wide of the mark.

Just look at some of the Premier League – and all-time English football – records that have tumbled since the Catalan moved to Manchester. City became the first team in the history of the top flight to reach 100 points in 2017/18; the following season they came within two of triple figures. If his team go on to win a fourth Premier League title this term, only six managers will have a better record than Guardiola in English football history.

Pep Guardiola has already broken plenty of Premier League records as his side bid for another title this season

Record breaker

Earlier this season City scored their 500th goal under Guardiola in his 207th match in charge. No other Premier League manager has reached that milestone so quickly. The City boss was also the fastest to 150 wins, ahead of the likes of Jurgen Klopp, Alex Ferguson, Jose Mourinho and Arsene Wenger. Guardiola also has the best points-per-game record, the highest winning percentage, the most goals per game and the fewest goals conceded per match since the Premier League was launched.

The numbers are remarkable, yet they do not tell the full story. City’s magnificence is in danger of being taken for granted. Their dismantling of Manchester United last weekend was a good example. The post-match coverage focused on United’s deficiencies – and that was understandable. There was nothing particularly newsworthy about City’s superb showing because we have seen that sort of dominance so often before.

Critics will charge that Guardiola has spent close to £1billion since taking charge at the Etihad, and that three Premier League titles in five years is simply par for the course. A failure to win the Champions League with such riches, they say, would be damning.

Yet anyone who watched Manchester United’s performance in Sunday’s derby will know that spending vast sums of money does not guarantee success. Moreover, City have seldom recruited ready-made superstars during Guardiola’s reign. Kevin De Bruyne came from Wolfsburg, Bernardo Silva from Monaco and Aymeric Laporte from Athletic Bilbao. Ederson and Ruben Dias were formerly of Benfica. Riyad Mahrez is ex-Leicester City and Jack Grealish arrived from Aston Villa. All of the above have improved on Guardiola’s watch. It is easy to say City have great players, but in many cases it was Guardiola who made them that.

Pep has changed English football forever

The biggest compliment that can be paid to any manager is that their team is more than the sum of its parts. That is certainly the case at City. Many doubted whether Guardiola’s style of play could work in the Premier League, famed for its robust physicality. It has not just worked but thrived. Guardiola has changed the landscape of English football.

Winning the Champions League with City would only cement his legacy, but it is worth remembering that only three managers – Bob Paisley, Carlo Ancelotti and Zinedine Zidane – have won the tournament more often than Guardiola. If he does lift the trophy with his current employers, the Catalan would become only the sixth head coach to do so with more than one club (after Ancelotti, Ernst Happel, Ottmar Hitzfeld, Mourinho and Jupp Heynckes).

Manchester City are the favourites to win this season’s competition, with Smarkets traders rating their chances at 29%. Even if they fall short, that will not be enough to eject Guardiola from the pantheon of managerial greats in which he already belongs.