Signing Erling Haaland does not mean Man City have already won next season's title

Striker incoming

Manchester City are almost there. A victory over Aston Villa on Sunday would see Pep Guardiola’s side crowned champions of England for the fourth time in five years. With Erling Haaland on his way to the Etihad Stadium, some have called for next season’s title to be sent to the Etihad Stadium already.

That sentiment is understandable. City look set to win the league despite not having an out-and-out striker. In certain matches this season, the absence of a centre-forward has been decisive. City dropped points in their four meetings with Southampton and Crystal Palace. They surely would not have been so wasteful in front of goal had they had a ruthless finisher up top.

The signing of Haaland is therefore hugely exciting for City. He will arrive in Manchester with a deserved reputation as one of the best young players in world football. His scoring record at Borussia Dortmund is extraordinary: 62 goals in 67 Bundesliga matches across two-and-a-half seasons. A return of 27 goals in 25 career appearances in the Champions League and Europa League bodes well too.

Can City go higher?

Yet for all that Haaland’s talent is undeniable, it would be premature to write off next season’s title race. If City beat Villa on Sunday they will move onto 93 points. If they score four times, they will reach a century of goals. Those are remarkable numbers. It is unclear just how much higher City can go in both regards.

It is true that a fox in the box could have prevented City dropping points on certain occasions this term. But in other matches, the fluidity of their frontline has helped them emerge triumphant. Take last week’s 5-1 thrashing of Wolves. Kevin De Bruyne scored four times at Molineux. That was mostly down to the Belgian’s brilliance. But, perhaps De Bruyne would not have found so much space in goalscoring positions if there was a penalty-area predator ahead of him.

City will attack in different ways with Haaland leading the line. They will score some goals that they might not have done this season, but the opposite is true too. There might even be occasions where Guardiola opts to leave the Norwegian on the bench, favouring Phil Foden, Jack Grealish or Bernardo Silva as a false nine.

Man City manager Pep Guardiola will have to try to adapt the way Erling Haaland plays to his side's system

No guarantee for success

You do not have to look too far to find examples of world-class centre-forwards failing to improve their new team. Whether or not Cristiano Ronaldo has been a net positive for Manchester United is a debate for another article. Ronaldo will argue he has lived up to his end of the bargain by scoring 18 league goals. But United overall have scored just 57. Last term, without the Portuguese, they notched 73.

Or consider the fate of Romelu Lukaku. Gary Neville was not alone in predicting the Chelsea striker would be a “guarantee” of goals this season. But Lukaku has scored only eight times in the league and has found himself on the bench for large portions of the campaign.

Haaland will be slotting into a better team than either Ronaldo or Lukaku, but he will still have to learn the intricacies of Guardiola’s system. His phenomenal scoring record suggests he will be a success at the Etihad, and he will certainly give City something they have lacked this season. But football is a complicated game, and adding a world-class striker to a world-class team does not necessarily mean City will collect 15 more points in 2022/23. Do not rule out a title race just yet.