What to watch out for when trading on football

Andy Schooler assesses some key factors to look out for when trading the football markets.

Team news

Suspensions and injuries will affect a football market, particularly one which goes up many days in advance of kick-off.

For example, a couple of key players limping out of a midweek match would likely be reflected in that team drifting in the win betting.

It therefore pays for a punter to follow what’s happening – and be ready to make a quick trade. Strike while the iron’s hot, as the saying goes.

Fixture list

Have a look at the team's fixtures around the match you are betting on, as they may well affect your thinking.

For example, history shows that teams in midweek European action often struggle when they return to domestic duty a few days later. It makes sense – perhaps they’ve had a long trip or simply the physical and mental demands of a big midweek match has left them a little drained. It’s particularly relevant when that team is facing one which has had a full week to prepare.

Reversing this scenario, it’s often the case that teams opt to rest players at the weekend ahead of a big midweek game.

It can also pay to look longer term, especially when it comes to trading the outright markets, such as Premier League winner or top-four finish.

A team about to face three of the top five in their next four games is clearly at a crossroads – a string of good results in those games would see their odds tumble, whereas a poor run over this crucial period would result in them drifting.

It’s up to you to decide where the value lies but, in such a situation, there’s certainly an opportunity.

Head-to-head

Some punters will place little weight on this aspect, offering up the theory that it doesn’t matter what happened between two teams last year or further back. I disagree with that.

Mental aspects play a big part in top-level sport and I firmly believe that a team which has consistently lost to certain opposition may well head into the next match against them on a slightly downbeat note, no matter what is said publicly in the build-up.

And it’s not just the players, many of whom can change over time. It’s also the coaching staff and fans – how many of the latter will have mentioned ‘it’s years since we beat them’ in the pub before the match? That can lead to a different atmosphere in the ground.

I remember stats like Everton failing to win at Leeds for 50 years and have little doubt that as that number got higher and higher, and been discussed more and more in the media, the players would have been all too aware of it.

It’s impossible to quantify how big a part such strong H2H pointers play but they are certainly worth looking into, especially given the person on the other end of your exchange bet may well be one of those ‘non-believers’.

Fighters and chokers

In-play trading is huge these days and one important aspect to be aware of is which teams have a track record of fighting back and which regularly lose leads.

Such trends can quickly snowball – the fact that leads have been blown before can become a mental issue for a team, who then display nervous tendencies when trying to close out games.

So, make sure you know which teams are winning the most points from losing positions and which are dropping them from winning positions.

You’ll often hear such statistics referred to in the media but if you want to take a look yourself, the excellent Transfermarkt website provides the tables.