Tour de France 2024: Will Pogačar win his third Tour de France?

The 111th edition of the Tour de France is nearly upon us and if the route and contenders are anything to go by, this year’s race could well be a classic. 

This summer’s Olympic and Paralympic Games in Paris means we’ll see a first-ever finish outside the capital, with the race concluding 600 km south in Nice instead. Another first sees Italy host the race’s Grand Départ, the 26th time the race has started outside of France.

While there might not be the traditional sprint finish on the Champs-Élysées to bring the curtain down on the three-week race, the route will still make decisive forays into the Alps and the Pyrenees as well as a rare final day individual time trial to keep the fight for the yellow jersey alive until the final seconds.

The Contenders

Tadej Pogačar - 1.68

Despite being ruthlessly beaten in last year’s edition of the Tour, the Slovenian is the hot favourite to win a third Tour de France yellow jersey, and his first since 2021. Pogačar arrives at the race having already won his first Giro d’Italia in May - effortlessly brushing aside those who tried to challenge him and winning by a margin of almost 10 minutes. If the UAE Team Emirates man manages to win the Grand Boucle, he would become just the eighth rider to achieve the Giro-Tour double in one season - the last being Marco Pantani in 1998.

However, the challenge of making it two Grand Tour wins in the space of three months could take its toll on the Slovenian’s legs during the latter and more mountainous part of the three weeks. In Tours gone by, Pogačar has found himself isolated in the high mountains with a swarm of Visma-Lease a Bike riders glued to his wheel. The promising form of Adam Yates and João Almeida - the pair taking the top two spots at the Tour de Suisse respectively - means UAE Team Emirates should have additional firepower to play with at high altitude, potentially protecting Pogi from too many leg-sapping battles with his general classification rivals.

Jonas Vingegaard - 3.8

The defending champion’s participation in this year’s Tour de France has hung in the balance for the past few months following a severe crash at the Tour of the Basque Country in April. Injuries including a broken collarbone and a collapsed lung left the Dane hospitalised for a fortnight. However, after restarting altitude training in June, enough positive signals were coming from the two-time Tour winner’s efforts to name him in Visma-Lease a Bike’s squad.

At the Tour he’ll be supported by a star-studded cast of teammates, arguably the strongest squad in the race, including Wout van Aert and Vuelta a España winner Sepp Kuss. It’s not uncommon for riders to grow into a Grand Tour, typically aiming to peak for the final week of the race - given Vingegaard’s stunted preparations he’ll likely aim to keep himself out of the spotlight during the opening few days. If he manages to overcome an ascent of the Col du Galibier on stage 4 unscathed then don’t be surprised to see a change in tact from last year’s champ.

Primož Roglič - 15.5

After playing second fiddle to Jonas Vingegaard for the last two seasons, Primož Roglič is now back as an outright team leader having joined BORA-hansgrohe at the start of the year. The Slovenian has unfinished business with the Tour de France after dramatically losing the yellow jersey on the penultimate day’s time trial of the 2020 edition. Since then Roglič has won two Vuelta a España titles and last year’s Giro d’Italia, but the Tour has remained out of reach.

That ill fortune could change this year though, if the Slovenian’s preparations are anything to go by. Despite also being caught up in the same pile-up as Vingegaard, Roglič came away relatively unhurt and went on to triumph at the traditional Tour warm-up race, the Critérium du Dauphine, where he won two stages and finished in the top-10 in all but one of the rest. While he may not be as dominant in the mountains as Pogačar or Vingegaard have been in recent Grand Tours, Roglič’s turn of speed can be beneficial for sweeping up vital bonus seconds. His strong time-trialling ability should also stand him in good stead for stage 21’s effort against the clock from Monaco to Nice.

Remco Evenepoel - 22.0

To be dubbed as one of the favourites on his first appearance at the Tour de France says a lot about the talent and potential that Soudal Quick-Step’s Remco Evenepoel has at his disposal. At just 24 years of age, the Belgian already has two World Championship titles, one each in the road race and time trial, to his name alongside the 2022 Vuelta a España title. However, his consistency in Grand Tours since - abandoning last year’s Giro and then finishing 12th on his return to Spain - raises question marks over his three-week form. Also blighted by the same crash in the Basque Country, he recovered from a broken collarbone and scapula to put in a steady display at the Critérium du Dauphine. The 60km of time trialling will no doubt help Evenepoel’s cause at this year’s Tour but he may struggle to keep pace in the high mountains when his rivals start to put in their attacks.

Carlos Rodríguez - 60.0

The 23-year-old Spaniard has been quietly going about his business so far in 2024, picking up a stage win in the Basque Country and on the final day of the Critérium du Dauphine, with an overall title at the Tour de Romandie sandwiched in between. After taking a stage and fifth place overall at the 2023 Tour de France, Rodríguez pushed himself into pole position to be Ineos Grenadiers’ main Grand Tour leader this season. For all of the Andalucian rider’s climbing capabilities though, his time-trialling ability will likely be his Achilles’ heel at this year’s race. 

Verdict

For me, Tadej Pogačar is the undeniable favourite for this year's Tour de France. Jonas Vingegaard's lack of form will be a mountain too high for the Dane to overcome during the three weeks and Pogačar, like at the Giro, will have the legs to both punish his rivals and then protect his lead in the final week.

Back Tadej Pogačar @ 1.6