NBA weekend tips: Short-handed Suns just keep rising

As the NBA regular season heads into the home straight, it’s now or never to make a move.

Chicago Bulls @ Phoenix Suns

Saturday 19 March, 2am

No Chris Paul, no problem for the Phoenix Suns. Still without their point guard, the NBA’s best team improved their league-leading record to .800 with victory over the Houston Rockets on Wednesday – a third straight win that has made last season’s Western Conference champions the first to officially clinch a playoff berth.

Beating the Rockets, the worst in the Association, was hardly a shocker, not when the markets mark them as title favourites with an 18% chance of winning it all. Back at home, they are 1.37 to overcome Chicago late on Friday as the Bulls continue to slide downwards and out of homecourt advantage in the post-season.

Over their last 10 games, the teams are mirror images: Suns 7-3, while averaging 119.6 points on a differential of +9.8. Bulls 3-7, notching 109.1 on a net -5.0. Phoenix, 8-4 minus Paul, has been fortunate that their schedule has pitted them against relatively few high-quality opponents with their stretch including a win over Utah and a loss to Milwaukee. After a trip to Sacramento on Sunday, their last ten games of the regular season includes seven against foes presently within the top eight of their Conferences.

But Devin Booker has put up 27.9 points and 7.8 assists in his colleague’s spell out with injury with the Suns increasing their offensive output by 3.2. With the Bulls third-worst in the whole NBA for first quarter points in their last 10 appearances at 25.2 (and Phoenix corralling 31.7 in the opening stanza), it’s certainly worth a look at the spread over the initial 12 minutes with the Suns at -4.

Recommended bet: Back Phoenix on a points spread of -6 points against Chicago at 1.91.

The Suns are having to cope without Chris Paul

Milwaukee Bucks @ Minnesota Timberwolves

Saturday 19 March, 9pm

The two teams with the best records since the All-Star break go head-to-head on Saturday night in what is a terrific test of the Timberwolves credentials as a playoff arriviste. Victorious in 10 out of their 12 since the mid-season pause, Minnesota has also had league-bests in scoring (125.2) and net differential (+12.4) in that period.

Enough to have them breathing down the necks of sixth-placed Denver – plus Dallas and Utah beyond – in what looks a four-way scramble to avoid dropping into the Play-in tournament. Karl-Anthony Towns has been a beast in that spell at 27.1 points per night but what is remarkable is that no other T-Wolf cracks the top 50 in scoring.

That Milwaukee has dropped out of the top half of the NBA in points defence suggests the Bucks are not as well-equipped to crowd out Towns as they were 12 months ago – one reason why their odds remain at 7.6 to defend their crowd despite hitting prime form. And it’s also why Minnesota will not Fear the Deer and are worth a look on a handicap of -3.

Recommended bet: Go over 235 total points in Milwaukee-Minnesota

Memphis Grizzlies @ Houston Rockets

Sunday 20 March, 7.30pm

Houston has not only failed to achieve any lift-off this season but their points differential is a diabolical -9.5 – hinging on an awful league-worst concession of 118.4 points per contest. The Rockets are also an abysmal 8-34 against rivals with winning records which hints at little chance against Memphis who are a perfect 40-0 when besting their opponents field goal percentage on any given night.

Lately, the Grizz’s shooting has cooled off, even if their overall output has remained high during a soft schedule streak, elevating them above Golden State into second in the West. But a note of caution: Houston beat Memphis by 12 earlier this month and although the Grizzlies took this season’s other two meetings, it may be one where the visitors tread a little cautiously.

Recommended bet: Go under 228 points in Memphis - Houston

Recommended bets:

Back Phoenix on a points spread of -6 points against Chicago @ 1.91

Go over 235 total points in Milwaukee-Minnesota

Go under 228 points in Memphis - Houston