NBA Sunday tips: Bucks and Cavaliers set for playoff dress rehearsal

With just a few games left in the NBA’s regular season, seedings – and shoring up momentum – remain on the table.

Golden State Warriors @ San Antonio Spurs

1:30am

With two games to go, the Warriors have one huge incentive to fend off the Dallas Mavericks for third seed in the Western Conference: avoiding a match-up with the Phoenix Suns until the West Finals at least.

But the Dubs have a found a little momentum that they’d dearly like to keep with three consecutive wins which followed their slump of seven losses out of eight.

Road trips to face the Play-In pairing of San Antonio and New Orleans may be the ideal tune-up for the post-season with Steve Kerr’s men seeking a 4-0 sweep of the Spurs. 

All three previous meetings have been claimed by 5 points or less and even though Kerr will rest some of his veteran talents over the weekend, the Warriors are favoured at 1.31. 

But what of beyond that? Among the pre-season favourites, the markets have bailed on Golden State to give them only an 8% chance of the title. Their fans place faith that Steph Curry will return for the playoffs and that, particularly defensively, it can be business as normal – and soon. 

Notably, his team have gone a miserly 28-26 when opponents score over 100 points although they are 27-17 against those with .500+, second only to the Suns in the West. 

It renders Golden State one of two ultimate wild cards in this forthcoming post-season. With a healthy Curry, they could be worth a punt. 

Recommended bet: Go under 220.5 total points @ 2.02

Golden State fans will be hoping that Steph Curry returns for the playoffs

Indiana Pacers @ Brooklyn Nets

8:30pm 

The Pacers are gearing up only for summer vacation. Even in facing free-falling Philadelphia on Saturday, they are a wretched 8.8 to win. Brooklyn, unexpectedly, are prepping for the long route to the Finals. The ultimate under-achievers, being sent to the Play-In to merely earn their ticket to the Playoffs feels like dismal failure. 

Yet even with Kyrie Irving cleared to play in every game (trips to Toronto excepted), there is no sense that the Nets merit the markets current price of 10.5 for the title. Junk bond wins over the Rockets, Knicks and Cavaliers have brought a three-game winning streak but in no way is Brooklyn setting itself apart.

10-5 over their last 15 games, their points differential is a healthy +7.6. However if they win the Play-In tourney’s 7v8 match-up, the reward is likely a series with Milwaukee who look perfectly equipped to cut the Nets down to size, having taken the regular season duel 3-1.

Injuries have hit hard. Remarkably – on the premise that a player needs to have featured in 70 per cent of his team’s games to be eligible for the stats charts – Patty Mills is officially their leading scorer with 11.5 points per game. They’ll get more from Kevin Durant and Irving in the post-season. It just doesn’t feel enough.

Recommended bet: Back the Nets by +7 

Milwaukee Bucks @ Cleveland Cavaliers

8:30pm

Also a possible first round dress rehearsal. Cleveland, smacked by injuries, has plummeted into the Play-In with eight losses from their last ten, including to Brooklyn on Friday. 

Easy prey normally for Milwaukee and the Bucks – with Boston playing later in the day - will not have the luxury of resting their stars with second seed on the line. 

But this week’s Play-In bracket in the East is intriguing. If Cleveland ends up playing the winner of 9v10 seed, it will be underdogs against both Atlanta and Charlotte, with the Hawks superior defence offering an edge. 

Milwaukee has no such concerns – and will sit back and rest up. But it is the Miami Heat who will enter the post-season with the East’s number one seed and with the best record against Conference opponents. 

And the Bucks, with a differential of just +3.5 over their last ten games that was inflated by Friday’s rout to dismal Detroit, look far from a surefire bet to defend their crown despite their tag as second favourites at 7.2. 

Recommended bet: Go under 220 total points

Recommended bets 

Under 220.5 total points in Warriors-Spurs @ 2.02

Nets by +7 over the Pacers 

Under 220 total points in Bucks – Cavaliers