NBA Playoff tips: sidelined stars throw uncertainty into NBA First Round

The true X-factor in these NBA Playoffs? Injuries - with the likes of Devin Booker, Khris Middleton and Luka Doncic afflicted in odds-shifting absences. But as the first round continues, the genuine title contenders must look to play the long game and aim to be at full strength for tougher battles ahead.

Phoenix Suns @ New Orleans Pelicans

Saturday 2.30am

Under the NBA’s old post-season system of top eight or bust, the Pelicans would already be nesting on a beach. Instead, they’ve headed home for Game 3 of their first round Western Conference battle with the elixir of a 1-1 split on the road at the top-seeded Phoenix Suns.

And with an underdog’s punchers chance, thanks to the troubled hamstring of Booker, who is likely to miss the rest of the series. A big blow, even for a Suns side that coped admirably in his regular season absences, going 8-6.

But it was telling in Game 2, won by New Orleans, that Phoenix was in control behind 31 points from Booker and then faded when he was sidelined. And go back further to last year’s NBA Finals when he played through a prior hamstring problem: unseen at the time, but perhaps a pivotal point.

So much now falls on the shoulders of Chris Paul. Not a bad Plan B, even if the Suns will look for others to step up and allow Booker to recuperate for as long as possible with another run to the Finals in mind. The markets still give them a 6.4 chance of becoming champions but those odds have lengthened.

The best case scenario would be for the Dallas-Utah series to go the full distance. With Doncic out, Dallas rallied to take Thursday’s Game 3. The Jazz is 1.61 to level on Saturday (9.30pm) and it has the makings of a seven-game duel.

Ideal for Phoenix. The Suns will also take confidence from going 32-9 on the road this term and that, as good as the Pelicans late season run has been, they are still 2.06 to grab an unlikely series lead and had to rely on unusually hot shooting from threes in midweek.

Recommended bet: Over 217.0 total points in Suns-Pelicans @ 1.93

Much resting on the shoulders of Chris Paul

Philadelphia 76ers @ Toronto Raptors

Saturday, 7pm

Can we call it a sweep? Not yet. But Joel Embiid’s three-pointer with 0.8 seconds left in Game 3’s overtime has put the broom on standby as the Raptors stare elimination in the face. Down 3-0 on their home floor, cursed from giving up a 17-point lead, Toronto require a mental and physical regroup.

But while no team has ever come from three down to win an NBA Playoffs series, Canada’s finest will look to the probable return of Rookie of the Year finalist Scottie Barnes as an assist to score some respectability in Saturday’s Game 4, in tandem with a second vaccination-enforced absence for the Sixers guard Matisse Thybulle.

The Raps were 24-17 at home this term and their defence makes them a solid punt at 2.22 to steal one back, especially with coach Nick Nurse now in full get-creative mode. Pascal Siakam and Fred VanVleet had 12 points apiece in G3 but will rarely have two off-nights in unison in succession. The 76ers survived last time, but only just. And even with the brilliance of Embiid, they are deservedly only priced at 12.5 for the title.

Recommended bet: Raptors to defeat the 76ers @ 2.24

Golden State Warriors @ Denver Nuggets

Sunday, 8.30pm

Like Philly, Golden State now has the comfort of history in holding a 3-0 lead over Denver after eeking out a 118-113 victory on Thursday. Teams with that upper hand are 143-0 all-time in progressing.

As with Toronto, the Nuggets are a proudful competitive bunch who have over-achieved without Jamal Murray this season and will not want to bow out on their home floor with a sweep, despite odds of 2.54 to rebound in Sunday’s Game 4.

However, in what should be a warning to the rest of the NBA title contenders, the Warriors have a spring in their collective step with the ability to put frenetic runs together, particularly in the second quarter.

That – and Steph Curry’s return to rude health – is why the markets have moved the Dubs into the position of championship favourites, giving them a 4.7 chance of adding to their honours. In the three games so far in this series, they have held the Nuggets to an average of 108.6 – defensive prowess that should see them land a knockout blow even if Denver comes out swinging.

Recommended bet: Denver as the First Quarter Winner @ 2.1

Recommended bets

Over 217.0 total points in Suns-Pelicans @ 1.93

Raptors to defeat the 76ers @ 2.24

Denver as the First Quarter Winner over Golden State @ 2.1