Friday's college basketball tips: Tom Collins analyses the ACC semi-finals matchups

March Madness is just around the corner and teams are fighting for their final seeding in a NCAA basketball season that has been blown wide-open on numerous occasions.

The ACC men’s basketball tournament has produced some of the most exciting games, and our college basketball writer Tom Collins pinpoints his bets for Friday’s semi-finals. 

Miami-Florida Hurricanes (+9.0) vs Duke Blue Devils (-9.0)

Money Line: MIA 4.5 | DUKE 1.23
Tip-off time: 12:00am (GMT)

Since the inauguration of the ACC in 1954, no team has had more success than the Duke Blue Devils. Crowned conference champions on 21 occasions in their history, the Blue Devils are generally considered likely to reign supreme once again but will have to negotiate a talented Miami Florida Hurricanes side if they want to make the final on Sunday evening.

Duke, who is seventh-ranked in the nation and enter the ACC semi-final with a regular season record of 27-5 (16-4 in conference play), boasts the ninth-best scoring offence in the league (80.6 points per game) largely due to the powerful pairing of Freshman forwards Paolo Banchero and AJ Griffin, who are both in line to be top ten picks in the 2022 NBA Draft.

Having won 13 of their last 15 games, the Blue Devils are strong favourites to gain revenge over a Hurricanes team who shocked the nation with a 76-74 victory against their aforementioned rivals at Cameron Indoor Stadium on January 9 this year. Take nothing away from the Hurricanes, who are 23-9 this season (14-6 in conference play) and played inspired basketball in a tight-knit game, but Duke’s 17 turnovers compared to the Hurricanes’ five was clearly the defining factor.

The Blue Devils have been much cleaner since, turning the ball over an average of 7.6 times over the past five games, and a similar display will see them progress into the ACC final.

Recommended bet: Duke (-9.0) at 1.98

Virginia Tech Hokies (+2.0) vs North Carolina Tar Heels (-2.0)

Money Line: VT 2.14 | UNC 1.75
Tip-off time: 2:30am (GMT)

Rock-solid defence enabled the 25th-ranked North Carolina Tar Heels to progress into the ACC semifinals with a decisive 63-43 victory over Virginia last night. Forcing their opponents to shoot just 35% from the field and 27% from three-point range was crucial to success, and the 18-time conference champions will bid to extend their winning streak to seven games against an in-form Virginia Tech Hokies side this evening.

The Hokies ended the season strongly with 11 wins from their last 13 games after a mid-season blip in which they lost eight of their 13 showdowns, which included shock defeats to Dayton, NC State and Boston College. However, with just 32 rebounds per game throughout the season (383rd in the country), this game may be won and lost on the boards.

North Carolina is ranked 35th in the nation at rebounding and seems to be hitting form at the right time on the back of a six-game win streak. They have faced Virginia Tech twice this year and won both encounters - 78-68 on their home court and 65-57 on the road - so it’s hard to envisage that domination coming to an end.

Given the line is set at two points, the value play is to take the Tar Heels at a slightly bigger price on the additional points spread at -2.5.

Recommended bet: North Carolina (-2.5) at 1.92

Recommended bets:

Duke -9 (1.98)
North Carolina -2.5 (1.92)